A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically shown an almost insurmountable edge, winning 27 of 28 series.
The only exception was in 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings in an unprecedented comeback.
Of those 28 series, 20 ended in sweeps, demonstrating the challenge teams face in such scenarios. The Panthers are hoping to secure a sweep in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings swept the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998.
Even if the Oilers manage to extend the series with a Game 4 win, history isn't favorable. Twenty-five of those 28 series that started 3-0 have ended in no more than five games. Despite the odds, the Oilers still believe in their capability to turn the series around.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are currently struggling, boasting a 0-5-0 record against the Panthers this season.
Edmonton showed some resilience in Game 3, managing to cut the Panthers' lead to 4-3 with gritty goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod in the third period.
However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was the Oilers' 4-1 deficit going into the third period—on home ice, in a must-win game, against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
Their downfall came during an embarrassing 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida scored three decisive goals.
The game had been tied at 1-all following a Warren Foegele breakaway goal for Edmonton. But a turnover by goaltender Stuart Skinner allowed forward Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, who made it 2-1 at 9:12, deflating the home crowd.
It quickly became 3-1 at 13:57, after Matthew Tkachuk's solid forechecking led to a Darnell Nurse turnover that Sam Bennett capitalized on for his seventh goal of the playoffs.
Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring spree for Florida at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance that originated from deep within the Oilers' attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
The mistakes kept piling up for Edmonton, while goals from their star players remained scarce.
While Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have found the back of the net, the Oilers' leading scorers—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have not.
These five key players also lead Edmonton's power play, which has been ineffective this series against Florida's perfect 10-for-10 penalty kill.
Edmonton's power play entered the series clicking at over 37%, the best in the postseason.
McDavid has made his mark with assists on three of the four Oilers' goals in the series. He is on pace to become just the second player since the 1967-68 season to have a point on at least half of his team's goals in the postseason, following in the footsteps of Oilers legend Wayne Gretzky in 1988.
Unfortunately for Edmonton, the other star players have yet to record a point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
The Oilers' players are keenly aware of their shortcomings. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," Draisaitl said.
He also acknowledged the team's collective failings: "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Stuart Skinner expressed a mix of disappointment and hope: "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Despite the adversity, the belief within the squad remains strong. "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed, and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room," asserted Coach Kris Knoblauch.
Coach Knoblauch added, "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Skinner pointed out the pivotal momentum shift, "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl echoed the sentiment of resilience heading into Game 4: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."