John Elway’s Draft Dilemma: A Study in NFL Franchise Building
Assembling the pieces of an NFL franchise’s success or failure is a complex and often scrutinized endeavor. For John Elway, the former general manager of the Denver Broncos, the 2018 NFL Draft represents a pivotal moment marked by a considerable decision—a decision that continues to be the subject of debate among NFL enthusiasts.
Elway's tenure with the Broncos saw a number of significant draft picks and strategic decisions. One of the most notable was in 2018, when he opted to draft Bradley Chubb, a pass rusher from NC State, with the fifth overall pick, passing on quarterback Josh Allen. This decision, in particular, has had lasting repercussions for the Broncos’ franchise.
At the time, Elway’s choice was influenced by his confidence in Case Keenum, a quarterback he had high hopes for after Keenum’s standout season with the Minnesota Vikings. Additionally, Elway had previously drafted Paxton Lynch in 2016, a move that hadn’t panned out as expected—Lynch started only four games before his release in 2018.
The Broncos’ struggle with quarterback stability is well-documented. Since Peyton Manning’s retirement following the 2015 season, the team has cycled through 13 different starting quarterbacks, contributing significantly to their failure to make the playoffs since their Super Bowl win in the 2015 season. The lack of a reliable quarterback has been a key factor in the team’s struggles on the field.
Reflecting on his tenure and the choices made, Elway candidly admitted his oversight. “Last year I played [golf] with him and I’m wondering, ‘How long is it going to take him to realize that I passed on him and took Bradley Chubb instead?’ And it took him two and a half holes. And I loved him. But it just didn’t work out. He was my type. That was probably my biggest mistake of my GM days, was not taking Josh,” Elway remarked, acknowledging his missed opportunity with Allen.
Chubb, despite his promise and initial performances, struggled with health issues during his time in Denver. This eventually led to his trade to the Miami Dolphins, adding another layer of complexity to Elway’s legacy as a general manager.
In contrast, Josh Allen has found significant success with the Buffalo Bills, becoming one of the premier quarterbacks in the league. Allen’s development and performance have only highlighted the impact of Elway’s decision to pass him up in favor of Chubb.
Elway’s overall record as a general manager presents a tale of two halves. In his first five seasons, he boasted an impressive 64-26 record. However, the latter half of his tenure was less favorable, with a 32-48 record in his final five seasons. Elway, who stepped away from his role following the 2020 season, has had a profound influence on the Broncos, for better or worse.
His affiliation with the franchise dates back to his return in 2011 as the director of player personnel. Elway was later named the executive vice president of football operations in 2012, a position that allowed him to steer the team’s strategic decisions. His early success, exemplified by the team’s Super Bowl win in the 2015 season, cemented his reputation. However, the later struggles, particularly in stabilizing the quarterback position, became a defining challenge.
The Denver Broncos’ ongoing quest to find a dependable quarterback continues to be a critical issue. The decisions Elway made, including passing on Josh Allen, are a part of a broader narrative that encompasses the trials and tribulations of managing an NFL franchise. While Elway’s tenure was marked by both high peaks and deep valleys, it serves as a testament to the intricate and often unpredictable nature of the sport.