The NBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) award has long been a barometer for future stardom in the league, frequently favoring the most productive rookie scorers. Over the past decade, half of the award's recipients led all rookies in scoring, a testament to the importance placed on immediate offensive impact. Moreover, being the top pick in the draft significantly boosts one's chances of winning this prestigious award, with half of the past 16 recipients being No. 1 overall picks.
The trend suggests that players selected within the top five picks have the upper hand in the race for ROY. Notable exceptions, however, like Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon, remind us that outstanding performers can emerge from outside this upper echelon as well. Despite these exceptions, the general pattern remains: higher picks typically fare better in this race.
The inclination towards guards and forwards in this accolade is evident. Since 2003, only four big men have captured the ROY: Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and the much-anticipated Victor Wembanyama. This year's draft class of 2024, however, has been described as one of the least promising in NBA history, adding an intriguing wrinkle to the ROY conversation.
The top two picks of the 2024 draft, seen more as long-term projects rather than immediate impact players, do not play guard positions, further complicating the dynamic. Reed Sheppard, the highest-picked guard in the 2024 draft class, does come with significant expectations, especially for his shooting prowess. As one insider noted, "They badly need his shooting." However, Sheppard faces stiff competition within Houston’s crowded backcourt, which might limit his opportunities for significant playing time.
Other notable rookies face similar challenges. Stephon Castle, who struggled with a 26.7% shooting percentage on 3's at UConn, and Ron Holland, with a 23.9% 3-point shooting percentage in the G-League, may find their shooting woes a barrier to early success. Similarly, Alex Sarr’s dismal 19.1% shooting from the floor at Summer League hardly positions him as a frontrunner.
The Roadblocks and the Contenders
Zach Edey stands out as a relatively sure starter for the Grizzlies, expected to model his game on the sturdy and reliable Jonas Valanciunas. The Timberwolves have drafted Rob Dillingham with an eye toward the future, viewing him as a potential replacement for Mike Conley. However, immediate ROY considerations might elude him.
Portland rookie Donovan Clingan faces a tough rotation battle sitting behind Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III, likely curtailing his minutes on the court. Similarly, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are competing with rookie Zaccharie Risacher at forward on Trae Young’s team, a scenario hardly conducive to significant rookie-year accolades.
Isaiah Collier’s path is obstructed by the established backcourt talents of Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, likely limiting his chances to shine. Moreover, Dalton Knecht, playing for the Lakers, finds his opportunities restricted by the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell.
Outside the Lottery Glimpses
Last season, Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. received votes outside of the lottery, although neither made a serious run at the top rookie honor. This pattern illustrates how challenging it is for rookies to break out when confined to minor roles or playing on less competitive teams. Simply put, visibility and opportunity matter.
This brings us to Kyshawn George, whose candidacy might suffer due to his environment. As one commentator succinctly put it, "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up." A player's context within a team—whether they play alongside talented veterans who can elevate their game or find themselves on squads without strong support—often influences their performance and development.
As the 2024 NBA season unfolds, the rookie class will seek to defy the year's dim predictions and assert themselves in the ROY race. Whether from top picks like Reed Sheppard or unexpected standouts emulating the paths of Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon, the journey promises to be closely watched, scrutinized, and debated.