The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face off against the Chicago Cubs this afternoon at Wrigley Field. With first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM ET, fans are anticipating an exciting matchup between two teams with contrasting recent performances.
Pitching Matchup: Steele vs. Nelson
On the mound for the Cubs will be Justin Steele, who has made an impressive 14 starts so far this season. Despite his 2-3 record, Steele boasts a respectable 2.71 ERA. He has shown his mettle with eight quality starts, and his most recent outing was particularly noteworthy as he pitched seven scoreless innings.
Steele appears comfortable whether at home or on the road, evidenced by his home ERA of 3.16 and road ERA of 2.96. However, he will be challenged by the Diamondbacks' potent offense, which averages five runs per game—the second-best mark in Major League Baseball.
Opposing Steele will be Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. Nelson, who carries a 6-6 record with a 4.99 ERA, has been reliable in recent starts. He has managed six straight starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. However, his WHIP of 1.42 and a batting average against of .296 suggest that he has encountered his fair share of challenges this season.
Diamondbacks and Cubs: Recent Performance
The Diamondbacks come into this game with a 49-48 record, good enough for second place in the NL West, though they trail the formidable Dodgers by seven games. They have been especially strong on the road recently, posting a 4-1 record in their last five away games and winning two straight road games. Additionally, their run line record mirrors their overall record at 49-48.
In contrast, the Cubs hold a 47-51 record and find themselves fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the division-leading Brewers. They have, however, managed to build some momentum, going 7-3 in their last ten games and achieving a 4-1 record in their last five home games.
Key Players to Watch
The Diamondbacks’ Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been standout performers, with Walker hitting 22 homers and Marte close behind with 19. The Cubs' lineup has also been productive, with Nico Hoerner hitting .378 over his last nine games and Christopher Morel smashing three homers in his last eight.
Statistical Overlook
Today's game features an over/under line of 7.5 runs—a figure both teams frequently exceed. The Diamondbacks surpass this line 84.5% of the time, while the Cubs follow suit in 67.3% of their games. Both are currently on three-game over streaks, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair this afternoon.
The Diamondbacks have fared well when the over/under is set at 7.5, holding a 6-4 record in such games. Meanwhile, the Cubs have a slightly positive record of 12-10 under the same conditions.
Predicted Outcomes
Projections suggest a narrow victory for the Diamondbacks, with a potential final score of 5-4. Justin Steele is anticipated to collect six strikeouts, while Ryne Nelson is projected to notch four. Moreover, Steele is forecasted to concede fewer runs compared to Nelson.
Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and their current trends, this matchup promises to be a thrilling contest for fans of both franchises. Whether it will be the Diamondbacks extending their road success or the Cubs leveraging their home field advantage, this game is one not to be missed.